The economy is holding up well—but with the EPS growth expectations implied by valuations running near 20% vs. a 13% guidance and analyst consensus, markets are priced for perfection. That disconnect sets the stage for a volatile close to 2025.

AI remains in its augmentation phase. Productivity gains are real but slower and lumpier than valuations would suggest, with most of the near-term boost concentrated in infrastructure suppliers.

AI’s surging electricity needs, combined with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act incentives, reinforce hydrocarbons’ central role. Demand looks firm for energy, midstream, and grid assets, even as costs and fragmented regulation complicate the investment case.

Tokenization is beginning to broaden access and liquidity across asset classes. Near-term, it could compress returns; longer-term, it is the plumbing required to finance the colossal capital needs of AI and, eventually, artificial general intelligence.