The heyday of government-sponsored multilateralism is over 

Despite the relief rally following the pause in the China trade war, we maintain the odds of a U.S. recession at 30%, driven in part by the likelihood of an impending supply shock 

A silver lining: growth outside the U.S., spurred by deficit spending in Europe and elsewhere, may offer new tailwinds 

Adaptive strategies include seeking higher (and more diversified) sources of income, reducing concentrated positions, revisiting portfolio biases—and updating assumptions to match the world as it is now