▪ Rising rates, rising tariffs, and falling taxes have put U.S. debt back on the table—not necessarily as a crisis, but as a newly combustible challenge.

▪ Tax cuts may help reflate 2026 earnings, yet even with multiples of 20x, the S&P ends up right around today’s levels—a reality check on reading too much into the recent rally.

▪ Tariffs are growth-dampening and socially corrosive—but surprisingly effective at raising revenue. So effective, they might pencil out the enormous additional hole in the budget created by tax cuts, but at the cost of low to even no growth.

▪ U.S. corporate resilience remains real—not invincible. A global rebalancing in portfolios still makes sense, especially toward regions with fewer moving parts and that are deploying actual fiscal stimulus via new government spending.